GBP/NZD getting close to some key support areas which can be the opportunity to get long.

Hi traders,

One of my favourite pairs right now is the GBP/NZD. This pair has been very slowly going lower and stopping many people which is or were believing that this was going to stop very soon. However, they had some reasons which is valid and worth a try. If we look the weekly chart, we will see that we were at the 618% and 78.6% fib from 2 different fibonacci.

When I see 2 fib levels in the same place like that, I try a small trade there because the risk is so small that its worth it. However, I think the best chart that I have for the GBP/NZD is the daily.

In the Daily chart above, we can see pretty clear that the last three moves to the downside has been very similar to each other in size. The moves to the downside has been approx. 2,160 pips.

At the current price action (right now at: 2.0424), I am waiting as I have been for the last 2 months for the GBP/NZD to reach at least 2.0260 area which will reach the same size move from those 3 down moves we had before.

My plan:

There is two options here which I can choose, do I buy around 2.0260 or should I wait for more confirmation first before buying?

The confirmation could be to wait for a break above 2.0850 which is the last major high we have right now and a break about a massive trend line which is in play since last year.
Regarding risk, I would probably put my Stop Loss at 2.0041 and a target at 2.1480. (keep in mind that this is a long term trading plan)

By Thiago Duarte
Chief Strategist at Duarte Investment Group 
thiago@duarteinvestmentgroup.com 
@thiagotrader

AUD/CAD at correction period which might end soon

Hi Traders,

Here is a remind of one of my long term trades, AUDCAD: on the weekly we see that last year in November we broke a important trend line and went near 1.0200 area. However, since then we can see that this market is now correcting and ​*maybe*​ we can see a re-test of this trend line.

On the other hand, on the Daily we can see that we might be in a channel but we have a strong horizontal line at 0.9747 which will try to hold this market.

Keep in mind that this pair is on my Long Term trades for 2016, so do not expect to close this trade in less then 3 weeks. The TP for this trade will be around the 1.0300 level.

By Thiago Duarte
Chief Strategist at Duarte Investment Group 
thiago@duarteinvestmentgroup.com 
@thiagotrader

NFP report (05/02/2016)

Hi traders,

Here is my NFP report with all the levels I will be watch during the realise of the job numbers:

USDJPY: very weak and 116.00 is MASSIVE. No one out there is expecting USDJPY to break 116, but what if he does? If we look SPX we saw that for the past few sessions he is stable but USDJPY is going lower, what IF SPX starts to get weak, USDJPY will probably tamble! Resistance: 

https://www.tradingview.com/x/CVou1ire/

https://www.tradingview.com/x/LEMqNulB/

EURUSD: very strong, the breakout of that TL I pointed out few days ago was MASSIVE. I am a buyer and any drop to 1.11 or even 1.10 is a opportunity to buy in my opinion. However, keep in mind that we have 61.8% at 1276 and some resistance at 1.1300.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/TB7P3wjg/

USDCHF: very simular to the EURUSD, we are very close to support around 9886 which also has the 78.6% fib close too which we had that spike there. However, in the LONG TERM: I think we can reach 9792.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/bZ7AesKv/

LT: https://www.tradingview.com/x/3WmcetQy/

USDCAD: pretty close to that TL and 61.8% which I believe its a good buy for the long term to 1.5000 (Very long term trade). So keep an eye on 1.3541 today.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/V6PW4RxB/

NZDUSD: very clear levels here, support at the 61,8% which is 6677 and resistance at the 78.6% fib at 6768. However, do not forget that I think this market is in a range in the long term between 6900 and 6400.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/eTumxXcQ/

https://www.tradingview.com/x/5ANpreAC/

DXY: We are in a important trend line here, if we break (and close!) I think we can go back to 93.00 zone. 

https://www.tradingview.com/x/tRU9xwyY/

DAX: very close to support at 9250. IF indices gets weak and EURUSD goes higher, DAX has a great chance to break that support today.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/DjZHg5KN/

GBPUSD: look at 4445 for support.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/UrsapHIG/

Trades: I have just stablished a very SMALL long on EURUSD and SMALL short USDJPY! 

By Thiago Duarte
Chief Strategist at Duarte Investment Group 
thiago@duarteinvestmentgroup.com 
@thiagotrader

Patient is key on trading

Hi traders,

Today I am going to talk about something that is key on trading which is patient. It seems to be easy sometimes to have patient on trading when its needed but is very hard especially for new traders which is adapting to the physiological part of trading.
Never you will find a market which will be in the same trend forever and that is when we see those 'healthy pullbacks'. When I say healthy pullbacks I mean when the market is in a very strong trend and we see the market doing a correction on short-term so more traders can jump into that market into the trend direction. However, that trend will not last forever and the market dynamics change which means that the market will go back to ''range mode''. Keep in mind that the markets has three modes: bullish, range, bearish. When the market is on bullish or bearish trend, its very common for the market to move to range before a full reversal. (eg. bullish trend, goes to range and then to bearish trend).

It is very difficult to trade the market when the market gets into a range mode because most of the time the market is not moving that much, or gives a lot of false breakouts or most important: you get sucked-in into the market in a very very bad entry. This is why I recommend to wait for a 4hr or even better; daily close above or trend line or Fib level so you get more conviction/confirmation.
However, many people do not that patience to wait for the confirmation and this can effect their results very dramatically.
I recommend for you to try more to trade with orders, which gives you the opportunity to wait for the market to get into your price and you won't need to run after the market. 
I agree that patient you gain with experience and confidence in yourself with good results but good results comes from a very tight discipline. So, try to trade slowly, you don't need to open many trades or big trades, all it matters first is to get those pips and with time you can start increasing (with correct risk management of course) your trading positions.

I think this is very good topic for your to think when you are free especially during the weekend that the market is closed. I also recommend you to take a break when you don't have good days! Everyone (even pro traders!) has their bad periods and the best thing to do it to take a breath and start again but feeling positive and not increasing your trades so you can get the money back that you lost.

Take you time and be patient!
It's much better for you not being trading than having really bad trades!

I hope this post can make you think about this topic and make you think what you can do to improve your trading.

Have a great weekend and we keep in contact in the chatroom or on Twitter.

By Thiago Duarte
Chief Strategist at Duarte Investment Group 
thiago@duarteinvestmentgroup.com 
@thiagotrader

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By Thiago Duarte
Chief Strategist at Duarte Investment Group 
thiago@duarteinvestmentgroup.com 
@thiagotrader

Indices back to big resistance!

Hi Traders,

I hope everyone is having a great weekend. As today is Sunday, is that day that when it gets around 8pm I start looking charts because there is nothing else to do haha.
Anyway, on the 'quick live session' that we had on Friday, I said that indices were getting very close to levels which I have been waiting for weeks and we are finally there. I started looking the Dow, SP500 and DAX and all of them are in big resistance and I love when that happens because of the correlation: If they are at resistance together, it gives me more confidence that the other side of my trade might be limited.

However, lets go to the charts:

Dow (DJI or US30 on tradinview):

Monthly:

Weekly:

Daily:

SP500 (SPX500 on tradingview):

Monthly:

Weekly:

Daily:

DAX (GER30 on tradingview):

Monthly:

Weekly:

Daily:

I do not think I need to talk about each chart as it is very easy to look and understand what I am looking at but as I said, they are ALL in RESISTANCE and I expect indices to make a top soon. Keep in mind that I have been bearish indices for the past 5 months and I still am and I think as we made a good jump in the past few days, I think this is a opportunity to start selling.
Also note that I am a medium to long term trader and I do not have any problem holding my trades for more than 1 week if I need to and also I do not talk about stop-loss because it depends in your account size, strategy and how long you can hold your trade.

I hope that by looking these charts it can help you in some way.

Take care and we keep connected on Twitter: @thiagotrader

By Thiago Duarte
Chief Strategist at Duarte Investment Group 
thiago@duarteinvestmentgroup.com 
@thiagotrader