Patient is key on trading

Hi traders,

Today I am going to talk about something that is key on trading which is patient. It seems to be easy sometimes to have patient on trading when its needed but is very hard especially for new traders which is adapting to the physiological part of trading.
Never you will find a market which will be in the same trend forever and that is when we see those 'healthy pullbacks'. When I say healthy pullbacks I mean when the market is in a very strong trend and we see the market doing a correction on short-term so more traders can jump into that market into the trend direction. However, that trend will not last forever and the market dynamics change which means that the market will go back to ''range mode''. Keep in mind that the markets has three modes: bullish, range, bearish. When the market is on bullish or bearish trend, its very common for the market to move to range before a full reversal. (eg. bullish trend, goes to range and then to bearish trend).

It is very difficult to trade the market when the market gets into a range mode because most of the time the market is not moving that much, or gives a lot of false breakouts or most important: you get sucked-in into the market in a very very bad entry. This is why I recommend to wait for a 4hr or even better; daily close above or trend line or Fib level so you get more conviction/confirmation.
However, many people do not that patience to wait for the confirmation and this can effect their results very dramatically.
I recommend for you to try more to trade with orders, which gives you the opportunity to wait for the market to get into your price and you won't need to run after the market. 
I agree that patient you gain with experience and confidence in yourself with good results but good results comes from a very tight discipline. So, try to trade slowly, you don't need to open many trades or big trades, all it matters first is to get those pips and with time you can start increasing (with correct risk management of course) your trading positions.

I think this is very good topic for your to think when you are free especially during the weekend that the market is closed. I also recommend you to take a break when you don't have good days! Everyone (even pro traders!) has their bad periods and the best thing to do it to take a breath and start again but feeling positive and not increasing your trades so you can get the money back that you lost.

Take you time and be patient!
It's much better for you not being trading than having really bad trades!

I hope this post can make you think about this topic and make you think what you can do to improve your trading.

Have a great weekend and we keep in contact in the chatroom or on Twitter.

By Thiago Duarte
Chief Strategist at Duarte Investment Group 
thiago@duarteinvestmentgroup.com 
@thiagotrader

FREE VIP Chat Room - For real traders !!!

Hello,

You are invited to join an amazing VIP and Private Chat Room with more than +130 traders! Free trial at the moment!

New chatroom for Real Traders

Hi everyone,

I have a great news for you today. I just created a chatroom for traders which trades Forex, Commodities and Indices. The chatroom will be free until the 12th of November 2015.

What does this room has which other don't?

This chatroom will have a team of professional traders that live from the profits made in the market and has years of experience. With a team of traders, we will have different hours to attend the chatroom so there will be always a trader assisting anyone in the chat room.

Fees?

The fee to participate in the chatroom still not decided but we will announce until the last week of the trial period.

How do I join?

To join you only need to send me your email address. When I receive your email, I will add your email on the system and in few seconds you will receive an email from Slack with the link to join. Pretty easy hm?

Is the chatroom reliable?

It is. With Slack platform we have the option to attached files and send to everyone in the room. We can also add our picture in our profile to look more visible for everyone to know who you are. Also when you access anytime in the day, you can read all the history from the chat you missed when you weren't online. Also you can install the Slack app in your mobile phone and you can access the chatroom from there.


I hope to see you there soon!

By Thiago Duarte
Chief Strategist at Duarte Investment Group 
thiago@duarteinvestmentgroup.com 
@thiagotrader

Indices back to big resistance!

Hi Traders,

I hope everyone is having a great weekend. As today is Sunday, is that day that when it gets around 8pm I start looking charts because there is nothing else to do haha.
Anyway, on the 'quick live session' that we had on Friday, I said that indices were getting very close to levels which I have been waiting for weeks and we are finally there. I started looking the Dow, SP500 and DAX and all of them are in big resistance and I love when that happens because of the correlation: If they are at resistance together, it gives me more confidence that the other side of my trade might be limited.

However, lets go to the charts:

Dow (DJI or US30 on tradinview):

Monthly:

Weekly:

Daily:

SP500 (SPX500 on tradingview):

Monthly:

Weekly:

Daily:

DAX (GER30 on tradingview):

Monthly:

Weekly:

Daily:

I do not think I need to talk about each chart as it is very easy to look and understand what I am looking at but as I said, they are ALL in RESISTANCE and I expect indices to make a top soon. Keep in mind that I have been bearish indices for the past 5 months and I still am and I think as we made a good jump in the past few days, I think this is a opportunity to start selling.
Also note that I am a medium to long term trader and I do not have any problem holding my trades for more than 1 week if I need to and also I do not talk about stop-loss because it depends in your account size, strategy and how long you can hold your trade.

I hope that by looking these charts it can help you in some way.

Take care and we keep connected on Twitter: @thiagotrader

By Thiago Duarte
Chief Strategist at Duarte Investment Group 
thiago@duarteinvestmentgroup.com 
@thiagotrader 

USD/CHF very close for a massive breakout!

Hi Traders,

We have NFP today and is a great day for us to see a important breakout. So, I was checking my charts now and I found this USD/CHF weekly and daily charts which shows us that we are very very close to a breakout, especially if we close the week above these trend lines:

Weekly:

Daily:

Let's see if we can close the week above 0.9815. IF it does, than we can see a breakout come into play and we can look for 1.0700.


By Thiago Duarte
Chief Strategist at Duarte Investment Group 
thiago@duarteinvestmentgroup.com 
@thiagotrader 

Video: Danger Ahead by Carl Icahn

Hi Traders,

Here is a video which I recommend everyone to watch it, very easy to understand and great explanation by a well known investor Carl Icahn. In this video he is saying that low interest rate is not good for the economy and only creates more bubbles which can be very dangerous. That is why the video is called 'Danger Ahead'.

Another live and free webinar - My trading strategy volume 2

Hi traders,

I have a great news! Finally I booked a day to do the next webinar about my trading strategy. Will be this Thursday (24/09) at 8 pm UK time.

This next webinar I will go into detail about what I spoke on the first webinar. I will explain in more detail differences and actions that we see during the trading day and I hope you guys understand even better how to use the tools that I use.

Here is some of the topics which I will discuss in the webinar:

RSI
Formations
Right time to trade
Elliott Waves (basic)
Levels
Fundamental (basic)
Correlation

I recommend you to watch the first webinar so you can get used to what I look and the tools so you do not get confused. Here is the first webinar which was made few months ago:

Here is the link for this Thursday webinar: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ojSeVbdpnk8

I hope to see you there and I hope you can learn something new.

By Thiago Duarte
Chief Strategist at Duarte Investment Group 
thiago@duarteinvestmentgroup.com 
@thiagotrader 

3 RSI Head and Shoulders that might come in play soon

Hi Traders,

Since yesterday when I started looking the RSI on the graphs very closely I found 3 head and shoulders on RSI which is very close to start bursting...

First one is on $XAUUSD (GOLD) Daily which I also spoke about in the 'quick live session' on Periscope yesterday:

(click on image to expand)

Today's close will be very important because if we close today very bearish and RSI line bellow trend line (TL), it will indicates that this formation will start taking shape and $GOLD can crush down very fast.. So wait for the Daily close today and let's see if we can break that 'neck line'.

Here is another one on $EURUSD Daily:

(click on image to expand)

$EURUSD had another H&S on RSI but a bullish one few days ago and that worked amazing. From the breakout of the neck line, he went 600 pips higher! Anyway, now we have another one but bearish. So the setup here is the same as on GOLD. Lets wait for the breakout of the neck line and a daily close bellow to have confirmation and stablish shorts.

And finally, here is the third one, $USDSEK Daily:

(click on image to expand)

This one is a tricky one and we need more confirmation than the $EURUSD and GOLD because we need to jump from current levels to form the right shoulder. If the $USD stays strong today, we have a great chance to jump and close higher which will build the right shoulder and than we can look for the breakout of the neckline.

Note: These 'head and shoulders (H&S)' are formed on RSI, not in price action. When this formation is created on RSI and plays out, 8/10 gives a very strong move in the market. For example: if that H&S on $EURUSD plays out, I can see $EURUSD reaching 1.0800 maybe in coming sessions.

Also, if you don't know what I am talking above.. feel free to watch my free webinar bellow, I explain very clearly how RSI works and what you can expect:

By Thiago Duarte
Chief Strategist at Duarte Investment Group 
thiago@duarteinvestmentgroup.com 
@thiagotrader 

Use correlation to your advantage

Hi Traders,

Today I want to talk about something that I personally use every trading day which helps me a lot which is correlation.

Before I continue, here is what correlation means:

In the financial world, correlation is a statistical measure of how two securities move in relation to each other. Currency correlation, then, tells us whether two currency pairs move in the same, opposite, or totally random direction, over some period of time. When trading currencies, it’s important to remember that since currencies are traded in pairs, that no single currency pair is ever totally isolated.

By having a correlation to look at and follow, it gives me more support and also a better time entry into my trades. Here are some correlation which I have been watching in the past few days:

EUR/USD + USD/CHF

 (click on image to expand)

GOLD + DXY

 (click on image to expand)

USD/USD + USOIL

(click on image to expand)

Inversely moving pairs are:

EUR/USD and USD/CHF
GBP/USD and USD/JPY
GBP/USD and USD/CHF
AUD/USD and USD/CAD
AUD/USD and USD/JPY

Examples of same direction moving currency pairs are:

EUR/USD and GBP/USD
EUR/USD and NZD/USD
USD/CHF and USD/JPY
AUD/USD and GBP/USD
AUD/USD and EUR/USD

I will give you an example of when I use correlation on my trading:

If I want to sell EUR/USD; first I will wait for him to touch a resistance level, when he does I will look a 'inversely correlation' to give me another support which in this case will be USD/CHF. So as I want to sell EUR/USD and he just touched a resistance level, I will see if USD/CHF is touching a support level at the same time. If he is, I will short EUR/USD knowing that USD/CHF is at support or if USD/CHF is not at support, I will wait a bit more until he does to finally sell EUR/USD.

This is a very simple technique which can help you a lot by opening trades with a better price point. I recommend you use it when you.

By Thiago Duarte
Chief Strategist at Duarte Investment Group 
thiago@duarteinvestmentgroup.com 
@thiagotrader 

Bearish US Indices not good for the US Dollar?

Hi Traders,

Today I want to write about something that I said on my Twitter about bearish indices. I wrote on my Twitter that bearish indices can affect the US Dollar to the bullish side. Many people wrote to my saying that they do not agree and think that with Indices getting a hit, USD will follow.

After getting all this emails and tweets, I decided to go to my charts and look the history between $SPX (SP500) and $DXY (Dollar Index) and here is what I found out:

(click on image to expand - SPX + DXY Weekly)

Above you can see both markets together in one graph. We can clearly see that every time $SPX had a correction, it gave the USD a lift. But why this time we are not seeing a USD jump? I think it is because the Rate Decision next month and the market is quite divided if there will be rate increase or not.
However, I recommend you to have a look into my last post regarding the $USD for you to know where we are at the moment (very important). 

With all these news regarding China and money getting out of the market, I still bullish $USD at the long term, does not mean I am buying everywhere.. but it means that I am buying at really selected levels.

By Thiago Duarte
Chief Strategist at Duarte Investment Group 
thiago@duarteinvestmentgroup.com 
@thiagotrader 

Don't trade the noise, trade the levels ($USD & $EURUSD)

Hi Traders,

Today (24/08/2015) we have seen HUGEEEEE moves on Forex, Indices and other financial markets. European markets faces the biggest loss since 2008, VIX surged by 67% today and according to The Guardian; ''Hundreds of billions wiped off world’s financial markets today''.
With all this news coming out every where and big sell off happening on Indices it makes us forget about trading the levels and only trade the noise. This is a big error for your results in the long term, no doubt, you can make very good pips in a very short time but for the market to bring you in and then reverse hard is very easy... Also another error as I already said, with all this media noise and big movements it makes us scared and especially: forget the levels.

As everyone today was speaking about $EURUSD reaching 1.1700, $GBPUSD reaching 1.5800 and $NZDUSD nearly 0.6200.... I was looking at the $USD Index (DXY) and thinking: is this the real top? Where all the big institution looking at?... So thinking about these questions and others.. I jumped into the $DXY Monthly chart and saw this:

(click on image to expand)

By looking this $DXY monthly chart, we can see that today we touched the 2005 high at 92.63 which also has the 1.618% fib very close. For me at least, 1.618% is a very powerful fib level which I sometimes use to trade against when we reach there. Now observing the RSI, we can see that is going down (following the price action) but is going very very slowly which makes me feel that this can be a correction.

Now jumping into the Weekly chart, is even more interesting:

(click on image to expand)

Looking at this chart straight away I saw a formation here: Bullish flag. After a very powerful move that we had last year until March this year, it is normal for the market to calm down a bit before any big move. So when the market wants to cool down, many times he makes a formation such as; channel, flag, triangle, range and others... and I love when any of these formations comes into play because it gives me an idea of when to buy (level) and where my risk is and also shows me that soon (can take days, weeks or months), it will continue the trend that was having before getting into the range.
Please, do not confuse yourself with formations, we have 2 types: continuation formations and reversal formations... Above I just spoke about the continuation ones..
Anyway, so there is maybe in flag in play in this chart, also 61.8% very close too and pitch fork line (I only put pitch fork on 30mins graph, but this one is working perfectly with price action). Looking price action, is in a very very 'rangy' mode here, not moving anywhere which is the perfect price action in flag. Looking the RSI now, is not giving any strong alert at the moment, but will be very interesting to see him breaking that big down trend line.

Now let's look the daily chart:

(click on image to expand)

Looking at the daily chart, we can see that we are creating a triangle here and as I spoke above, it is another continuation pattern/formation on price action. Also, today we touched the 0.382% fib (first fib level) and is holding very well until now. RSI don't have anything there at the moment, will only give us any alert when we brake that trend line. So, today I want to see the close above the triangle support line (93.06) to give more support that this is not breaking today.

Now let's look at $USDOLLAR 4hr chart as I don't have the access of the $DXY 4hr chart, but it is the same thing:

(click on image to expand)

Looking at the 4 hour chart (short term view) we can see that we touched and crossed by few points the 261.8% fib (last fib) today of the fib connecting the range high (12071-11065). Looking at that candle is not so bearish, nearly at the top of the candle (I will update about this candle on Twitter). On RSI, its nothing there until we cross the 30 line and close above. 

Conclusion on $USD charts:
Looking at all this charts is not making me sell even though we had a very bearish day. Ofcourse, if you look at the 4hr and Daily is very bearish very now, but if you look at the big picture/long term (more important), we can see that we are in a consolidation period on $USD after 20% jump which is normal. So lets not forget about that flag. However, looking at the $DXY weekly, we can reach 92.18 (61.8% fib) and 92.00. So maybe there is this risk but we are very close to that price and I will trade this to the long side just when I can see that the Risk/Reward is on my side.

Now, lets look another pair which can help us understand better the price action and what the banks/institutions are looking at. Let's look the $EURUSD Monthly chart:

(click on image to expand)

Looking the $EURUSD Monthly chart above, we can see that because of the jump on $USD, the $EURUSD went from 1.4000 to 1.0461. To get into that low he broke many trend lines and more especially; that trend line on RSI (that was big!). However, right now we are going higher but we still did not reached the 61.8%. Very 'rangy' here too which makes me think the same thing that I am thinking about the $USD; is he cooling down for the next move?

Lets go to the $EURUSD Weekly:

(click on image to expand)

Looking at this Weekly chart, we touched the 0.50% fib today which is amazing for those trying to get short and those holding longs. Nothing interesting on RSI as he broke a minor trend line, but if he breaks that upward trend line, that will be very interesting.

Let's go straight to the $EURUSD 4hr now:

(click on image to expand)

As we can see, we are in a channel on $EURUSD since March and is working AMAZING! Today we touched that channel resistance line (around 1.1700) and reversed very hard on London close. That candle is not bearish and is shows how many traders closed their longs there and how many went short. RSI is not showing anything eyet, but this pair is very very overbought (does not mean for you to sell now). 


Conclusion on both analysis:
Looking at the $USD long term we can see that he is maybe in a flag and very 'rangy' indeed. Short term we touched a very very important level today (2005 high and 0.382% fib) which worked as a very strong support and for that reason, a ugly candle is showing but we need to see the close first (bullish, 4hr)
Now, $EURUSD is the same thing too, looking the long picture, we are consolidating after a big fall and also touched big resistance levels (0.50% fib and 1.1700 channel resistance). Short term, we are in a very strong channel and today we just touched the top of that channel and reversed hard. 4hr candle is very bearish but we need to watch the close first.

In my opinion (trading): I bought $USD across the board today: 
short: $EURUSD, 
long: $USDCHF, $USDCAD
I think we are in a great place on the $USD to own again.
Note: this trades are my long term trades.

I hope this post makes you know better where we are and what can happen.

By Thiago Duarte
Chief Strategist at Duarte Investment Group 
thiago@duarteinvestmentgroup.com 
@thiagotrader 

RE: When I use Formation with RSI confirmation to trade

Hi Traders,

Replying regarding the last post I wrote regarding waiting for RSI confirmation to get short $USD. After we got that confirmation, I decided to get long $EURUSD and I just closed that trade with +95 pips. Amazing trade guys!

Here is the $USDOLLAR 4 hour chart before the confirmation:

(click on image to expand)

Here is the $USDOLLAR 4 hour chart after we got the confirmation and I got long $EURUSD:

(click on image to expand)

And here is the affect of the negative $USD into the $EURUSD 4 hour chart which I got long:

(click on image to expand)

I hope you guys watched that RSI on $USDOLLAR as I did and got some pips somewhere. I also hope you guys understood better how to use RSI to help us by giving more conviction in our trading plan.

By Thiago Duarte
Chief Strategist at Duarte Investment Group 
thiago@duarteinvestmentgroup.com 
@thiagotrader 

When I use Formation with RSI confirmation to trade

Hi traders,

Today I will show your guy a great example of when I find a formation on my graphs and I use RSI trend lines (TL) to give me more support and open a trade.

Bellow you can see my $USDOLLAR 4hr chart which is showing my a bearish flag. 

(click on image to expand large)

Keep in mind that flag needs to hold bellow the 0.50% fib of the last move. Which in this case is from 12058 (0% fib) to 11947 (100% fib). At the moment we are just touching that fib which is a great thing because my stop loss will be very close to my entry if I do trade.

So after I find a formation, I will look into my RSI to add trend lines so I can use them as an alert when they do break TL.

(click on image to expand large)

So above you can see my work on RSI. I added those small circles for you to know what points I looked when I saw the RSI, so by looking those points I added 2 TL and worked amazing! Very clear indeed!

Now what is my trading plan?
As I can see a bearish flag on my chart, I will wait for him to slide and break my RSI's trend line which will give the market even more pressure to short this market. 
If he does not break down and start going higher (above 12010), I will delete everything about this flag and be away as the flag got cancelled. This especially happens when some data is out.

Take profit level?
My take profit level will be the measurement of the flag which is the size of the last move of the flag which is the same levels of the fib which I mentioned above. I normally add that arrow and then cloned and put on my graph to not make me forget. So my take profit here will be 11900.

Stop loss?
Very close, 12010. Which is the last high and also above the flag/channel line.

Now, all I need is to be patient and wait for this market to come down and break my RSI trend line for me to jump in.

I hope it plays out!

By Thiago Duarte
Chief Strategist at Duarte Investment Group 
thiago@duarteinvestmentgroup.com 
@thiagotrader 

Archived webinar - My trading strategy (2015)

Hi traders,

Here is my archived webinar from last week which I showed my short and long term trading strategy. Please watch, share and comment.

Thank you!

By Thiago Duarte
Chief Strategist at Duarte Investment Group 
thiago@duarteinvestmentgroup.com 
@thiagotrader 

RSI breaking trend lines everywhere on the $DAX

Hi traders,

I hope everyone had a great week. As normal, I like to do my homework/analysis on Saturday or Sunday night as the market is closed and I am relaxed.

Here is my RSI trend line analysis:

In this list, you can see my analysis on Monthly and Weekly time frame only. I am not showing the Daily and 4 hour because is very short term and probably most of you will see this post just tomorrow.

However, as you can see the $DAX broke its RSI's trend line on the Monthly and Weekly graphs. This is a very powerful alert that a bearish move is to come.

Is it time to sell $DAX? I think so but keep in mind, this is a powerful market and you should know your stop loss before entering a trade. I will look for pullbacks to sell when it comes.

Here are the graphs:

Monthly:

Weekly:

*Click on the image to expand

By Thiago Duarte
Chief Strategist at Duarte Investment Group 
thiago@duarteinvestmentgroup.com 
@thiagotrader 

Free webinar about my strategies and the tools that I use

Hello everyone,

For the past few days I have received many emails and tweets from other traders asking me many questions about my strategies and what I use to open trades and close, so I decided to make a free live webinar to explain to everyone everything I look for when I am trading.

The webinar will be this Thursday (13/08/15) at 8pm UK time and will be around 1 to 1:30 long. Here are some of the topics that I will discuss in the webinar:

• RSI
• Fibs
• Candlestick Patterns and Formations
• Time Frames
• Elliott Waves
• Organisation
• Trendlines
• and others

Here is the link to join me at 8pm UK time on Thursday: 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TzsXxcIM2hk

By Thiago Duarte
Chief Strategist at Duarte Investment Group 
thiago@duarteinvestmentgroup.com 
@thiagotrader 

FX/Commodities/Indices Live session: 23/03/2015

Links for the free live session on Monday

Hi guys,

Here is the link to participate in our FIRST FREE LIVE session this Monday, on the 23rd March 2015 at 9PM UK time.

LINK


See you there!

Thiago

Thiago Duarte - Welcome to our new blog: thiagotrader.blogspot.co.uk

Hope to see everyone next Monday which the first one will be this Monday the 23rd March 2015 at 9pm (GMT).

Another range environment on Cable?

Hi guys,

Sorry for being away for a while. Has been really busy for the last days with studies and other works. Anyway, with this coming back I would like to discuss about a pair that is very interesting for me at the moment which is the GBP/USD.

With the graph above, we can see the monthly chart showing the monthly reaction in this par. As we can see, every time that he wants to create a bottom or a top most of the time he make a range of months before breaking out. Of course, there are tops or bottoms that he did not make this (range) and just reversed but is two or three of those...
Another thing to keep in mind is support level, we are less than 100 pips from 4812 which is July 2013 low.

Conclusion:
I am not saying to buy here like crazy. What I am saying is to not sell at current levels as we are very close or at support. Also, Dollar Index (DXY) is looking over extended. IF I buy anytime this pair, my loss will be just bellow that 4812 level.

Take care guys!


By Thiago Duarte
Chief Strategist at Duarte Investment Group 
thiago@duarteinvestmentgroup.com 
@thiagotrader 

Order better than entering into the market manually

Hi guys,


Today I want to talk about entry orders in the financial markets, not only on forex. Why do I think orders are better than enter into the market manually? Its because orders are created after we analyse the market in our own way. Usually traders that enter into market manually, they are jumping into the trade, scalping or trading during news.

Personally, I only trade manually during news when the markets are very active and moving 50 pips in seconds. Also, orders are great because sometimes we are not watching the market and the trade get triggered and does what he needs to do but as we are not seeing, it doesn't effect us mentally. 

Keep this in mind guys,


By Thiago Duarte
Chief Strategist at Duarte Investment Group 
thiago@duarteinvestmentgroup.com
@thiagotrader